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A Healthy Noah Dobson Poised to Lead Islanders in Round 1

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers
By Michael Ostrower | Last updated 4/19/24

The New York Islanders announced Friday, April 19, that star defenseman Noah Dobson returned to practice after being listed as day-to-day. Dobson, who played just three shifts in the Islanders’ April 11 win over the Montreal Canadiens, has played a crucial role for the team this season, and his return is a massive win for the defense.

Dobson Carrying the Defense

Dobson finished the season with 10 goals and 70 points in 79 games, as well as a plus-12 rating. When drafted 12th overall in the 2018 NHL Draft, fans knew of his offensive talent, and he was regarded as a great value pick. He has developed well, finding his groove at the NHL level alongside veterans Andy Greene and Zdeno Chara before stepping into a top-four role last season.

This season, the team’s defense got obliterated with injuries, losing Ryan Pulock, Adam Pelech, Scott Mayfield, and Sebastian Aho to long-term injuries. Dobson stayed healthy until the end and played a monumental role. He averaged 24:30 minutes a game, finishing 13th in the NHL in ice time with 1936 minutes. He played on the power play, penalty kill, and whichever partner he was given. Getting him back for the playoffs is a huge relief for the Islanders. With Dobson now healthy, head coach Patrick Roy will not have to send out Robert Bortuzzo the entire series, having almost all of his options healthy.

Dobson Offensively Gifted

Heading into the season, a Dobson breakout was due. He scored 13 goals and 49 points last season, and he took significant steps in his development. He looked taller and stronger, and he drove the offense. When Mat Barzal went down with an injury late in the season, Dobson took over the puck-carrying duties, showing what he was capable of. This season, with a healthy offense, he has broken out.

The 2022-23 Islanders had the league’s third-worst power play. It was abysmal, creating little to no high-danger looks, and they struggled to establish possession in the offensive zone. This season, while still far from perfect, has been a different story, with the team finishing with a nearly 5% higher success rate, skyrocketing to a league-average power play. While this is not the most impressive feat, it is massive for the Islanders who are a strong even-strength team and needed a slight boost on the man advantage.

This power play success has been a result of Dobson’s experience and patience with the puck. He now makes the smarter, crisper passes to provide his teammates with the best opportunities possible. Considering the Carolina Hurricanes, the Islanders’ first-round opponent, had the league’s best penalty-killing this season, getting Dobson back is the only way to give the power play a real opportunity.

Breaking Through on the Hurricanes

Scoring on the Hurricanes is already a difficult task and adding a full healthy Frederik Andersen will make it even more challenging. Last postseason, the Islanders struggled immensely against Carolina, scoring just 15 goals in six games. While this may not seem low, five goals came in one game, so scoring 10 in the other five is not impressive.

Andersen has dominated in his short season, going 13-2-0 in 16 games, posting a 1.84 goals-against average and .932 save percentage. He also has 12.2 goals saved above expected, according to Money Puck. For all goaltenders with more than 15 games this season, he is first in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, with .802. Whether he can continue this elite play will be the question, but if he does, the Islanders will need a miracle to find the net—a miracle that likely stems from Dobson’s stick.

The series between the Hurricanes and Islanders will begin with a two-game stint in Carolina on April 20 and 22. The first few shifts of the series will likely hint at how it will finish, with the Islanders needing to start fast, physically, and in possession of the puck outside of the defensive zone. They will need to find offense early, proving they can take down one of the league’s best teams. If they do not, they may suffer their third playoff series loss to the Hurricanes in just six seasons. With their recent success, they should be able to keep up, but only time will tell.

This article first appeared on The Hockey Writers and was syndicated with permission.

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